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Market Overview: What to Expect This Week

Brent Donnelly, president at Spectra Markets, predicts a potential shift in currency markets, with expectations of selling USD. He suggests that if not for the holiday in London, selling may have already begun. Donnelly sees opportunities for the dollar to decline against various pairs, especially USDJPY and EURUSD, and has taken positions accordingly.

Key Events:

• Monday: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and New York Fed President John Williams are scheduled to speak, providing insights into interest rate policy.
• Tuesday: Highlights include weekly Redbook same-store sales and the TIPP consumer sentiment reading.
• Wednesday: Expect data releases on wholesale inventories, weekly mortgage applications, and petroleum stocks.
• Thursday: Focus on weekly jobless claims and natural gas stocks data.
• Friday: The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading for May will be released.

Market Analysis:

Recent data releases, coupled with the weak US jobs report, suggest a possibility of rate cuts, potentially shifting momentum towards equities while dampening currency strength and yield gains. Analysts at JP Morgan anticipate a peak in yields, citing historical patterns and stretched valuations, though they remain neutral on duration for now.

In March 2024, US imports surged compared to the previous year, while exports declined, indicating potential business slowdown. Despite moderate growth, inflation remains a concern, driving calls for rate cuts to stimulate new business ventures.

However, geopolitical tensions in various regions may influence US resource allocation and decision-making. The Fed may hesitate to cut rates, considering the geopolitical landscape and its historical implications.

Future Outlook:

With ongoing developments, attention remains on Bitcoin and the crypto market as investors seek alternative investment avenues. Additionally, advancements in AI technology and the adoption of Web3 continue to shape market dynamics.

COMMODITIES

GOLD on the bullish as markets keep prices above 2295.536 and beyond 2319.398. We also now hear talks of analysts looking into shorting the US Dollar alongside the de-dollarization of several countries, putting pressure on the US economy, and slowing down their exports. This slowdown of exports may also refer to the attempt of the government to control inflation by releasing the dollar toward other countries by increasing imports. 

On this note, GOLD is becoming more attractive to trade as the literal “safe haven” for investors in the market. While a possibility for GOLD to create a low before a peak is possible, the current price does suggest a collection of orders before the next rise. 

SILVER – Silver is looking better as the prospects of a bullish market become more stable. The price ranged for the collection of orders and an opportunity for real money to enter lower. We may see another fall toward 26.753 before a continuation break above 27.552. We will see further accumulation of buy orders, pulling prices upward. 

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